Save The World

Posted by Christopher Smith Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:45:00 GMT

As long as we’re looking at house resolutions, you should probably look at this one (am I the only one a little disturbed to know that our congress is building its drafts on the “O” drive and appears to still be conforming to DOS 8.3 style filenames?!). I mean it just involves more of your money than you’ve probably spent on your mortgage/rent lately, and it may be the only hope you have of keeping said roof over your head… or it could just be an unmitigated disaster.

FIRE on fire 2

Posted by Christopher Smith Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:49:00 GMT

There is, understandably, a lot of discussion about the economy right now. Eric Janszen’s article in Harpers strikes me as one of the better articles I’ve read on the subject. I find it interesting that he thinks the money is shifting in to alternative energy. It makes sense as a hedge bet, but is so capital intensive I can’t imagine it holds up for long.

UPDATE: Looks like the feds have made their next move. Hold on to your seat belts tax payers! It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

A Mortgage Proposal 2

Posted by Christopher Smith Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:23:00 GMT

It is a melancholy object to those, who comb through the financial pages of this country or the world, when they see the balance sheets of our great financial institutions covered in mortgage backed securities, worth little more than rags as nobody wants them, representing thirty, forty, even sixty times equity. These financial institutions, instead of being able to lend money for their honest livelihood, are force to employ all their time in strolling to beg for capital in order to buffer the massive losses from these fraudulently valued securities. Securities who, when they mature, either default for want of property value, or end up aiding foreign sovereign funds in acquiring the core of our economy.

I think we all agree, that the prodigious amount of MBS’s weighing down our the balance sheets of our financial institutions is, in the present deplorable state of our economy, a very great additional grievance; and therefore whoever could find out a fair, cheap, and easy method of making them useful financial instruments of the economy would deserve so well of the public, as to have their statue set up for a preserver of the economy.

But my intention is very far from being confined to provide only for the MBS’s of professed near-bankrupt financial institutions: it is of a much great extend, and shall take in the whole number of subprime mortgages, who are born of financial institutions clearly not able to back them, as those who demand tax payer charity on Wall Street.

As to my own part, having turned my thoughts for many months, upon this important subject, and maturely weighed the several schemes of our projectors, I have always found them grossly mistaken in their computation. It is true, an MBS just dropped on the market, may be supported initially by short term loans form the Fed, with little other nourishment: at most not above the value of the paper they are printed on, which the financial institutions may certainly get, or the value in scraps, by their lawful occupation of begging the Fed for money; and it is exactly at the end of this period that I propose to provide for them in such a manner, as instead of being a charge upon their financial institutions, or the economy as a whole, or wanting a real valuation fo rthe rest of their term, they shall, on the contrary contribute to the rebuilding of our economy.

There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary write offs, and that horrid practice of institutions declaring bankruptcy, alas! too frequent among us, sacrificing the future value of these innocent MBS’s. I doubt, more to avoid the forensic accounting than the shame, which would move tears and pity in the most savage and inhuman breast.

The number of trillions in this economy usually reckoned thirteen trillion, of these I calculate there may be about one trillion who are MBS’s, from which I subtract thirty billion, who are sure to mature without default, (although I apprehend there cannot be so many, under the present distress of the economy), but this being granted, there will remain nine hundred and seventy billion in at risk MBS’s. I again subtract thirty billion, for those MBS’s which will be rescued by earnest politicians playing election year politics with tax payer’s money. There only remain nine hundred and forty billion MBS’s born of overinflated mortgage valuations, incomes and credit scores. The question therefore is, “How this number shall be addressed, and cashed out?” which, as I have already said, under the present situation of affairs, is utterly impossible by all the methods hitherto proposed. For we can neither employ them to continue to inflate property values; we neither build houses, nor develop existing property; they can very seldom pick up value when some idiot stubbornly continues to pay their underwater mortgage. As I have been informed by a principal gentleman in the county of Los Angeles, who protested to me, that he never knew above one or two instances under the age of six, even in a part of the country so renowned for idiocy and inflated property values.

I am assured by our financial intelligentsia, that an MBS is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three percent or three and a half percent at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the lenders of the economy, the charge of consulting fees and executive bonuses having been at least four times that value.

I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection.

I have been assured by a very knowing consultant, that asset-backed securities are a most wondrous and secure source of revenue, whether WAM or WAC; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve as a retirement investment or college fund.

I do therefore humbly offer it to public consideration, that of the nine hundred and forty billion in questionable MBS’s, already computed, we reserve two hundred billion for social security and medicare funding, wherefore only one fourth part need be worth something in the next ten years, which is more than we can ever hope to get from our own government’s budget. The remaining seven hundred and forty billion at fiscal year end, be offered in lieu of cash or stock as compensation to our astute financial leaders for their services. Always advising packagers to include the riskiest, most ridiculous mortgages in the securities. Indeed, I recommend we, by force if necessary, exchange these securities for all the cash and assets which said leaders have not nailed down.

I grant that these securities are difficult to value and understand, and therefore very proper for financial CEO’s and consultants who, as they have already devoured most of the solvency of our money supply, seem to have the best title to the MBS’s.

Insolvent MBS’s will be in season throughout the year, but more plentiful during December, and a little before and after; for we are told by a mortgage broker, an eminent real estate salesman, the financial institutions are most desperate to run up the books during the holidays.

I have already computed the charge of changing the title on the securities to be about two cents per page; and I believe no gentleman would repine to give a dime for the carcass of a good, horribly mismanaged mortgage.

Those who are less innovative (as I must confess the times require) may flea the MBS’s; the paper of which, artfully folded, will make admirable hats, shirts, or summer boots for fine gentlemen or ladies.

As to our Wall Street, shambles may be appointed for this purpose, in the most convenient parts of it, and liquidators we may be assured will not be wanting; although I rather recommend acquiring the MBS’s before bankruptcy, and dressing them up with fresh paint, as we do with houses when selling them.

A very worth person, a true lover of this unregulated market, and whose virtues I highly esteem, was lately pleased, in discoursing on this matter, to offer a refinement upon my scheme. He said, that many leaders of this financial market, having of late leveraged their own companies in to the ground and no longer having any assets of value, might well be in need of their own loans from the very financial institutions they have so imperiled.

And so, the wondrous power of an unregulated capitalist market, guided by the desperately motivated genius of our most vaunted financial geniuses, shall be saved. Having their entire net worth tied in MBS’s shall motivate them to steer the economy through to the point where they are again worth something more than as an implement to wipe one’s arse, and at said time their desperate need for liquidity will encourage them to find ways for our financial institutions to continue fund loans for new, high risk loans to customers with poor prospects and limited assets.

Many other advantages might be enumerated. For instance, the addition of some thousand new borrowers to the Manhattan area may increase the availability of payday loan retailers in the financial district. But this, and many others, I omit, being studious of brevity.

Supposing that one thousand financiers in Manhattan would be constant customers of high interest loans and credit card companies, besides others who might have it at merry meetings, particularly at weddings and christenings, I compute that Manhattan would add annually about twenty billion in unsecured loans, and the rest of the economy another twenty billion.

I can think of no one objection, that will possibly be raised against this proposal, unless it should be argued, that the number of people with savings will be thereby much lessened in the economy. This I frely own, and ‘twas indeed one principle design in offering it to the world. I desire the reader will observe, that I calculate my remedy for this one industry: investment banks, and for no other that ever was, is or, I think, ever can be upon earth. Therefore let no man talk to me of other expedients: of taxing any capital gains from MBS’s as income, of providing these financial leaders with neither limo nor cellphone, except what they can sell their bodies for themselves, of utterly rejecting the notion of unregulated businesses reselling debts so that those who know the quality of the debt retain no responsibility for it, of insisting that those who are rewarded for taking successful risks with the core components of our economy be equally punished for those risks which prove unsuccessful, of suggesting that the wealthy who profited obscenely from the free flow of money ought to bear the burden of its consequences, of teaching investment banking wizards that complexity that obfuscates securities is not a virtue. Last, of putting a spirit of honestly, industry, and skill into our investment bankers, who, if a resolution could now be taken to buy the Fed’s paper at discounted prices, would immediately unit to cheat and exact upon us in the price, the measure and the goodness, nor could ever yet be brought to make fair proposal of just dealing, though often and earnestly invited to it.

Therefore I repeat, let no man talk to me of these and the like expedients, ‘till he hath at least some glympse of hope, that there will ever be some hearty and sincere attempt to put them into practice.

But, as to myself, having been wearied out for many years with offering vain, idle, visionary thoughts, and at length utterly despairing of success, I fortunately fell upon this proposal, which, as it is wholly new, so it hath something solid and real, of no expense and little trouble, full in our own power and whereby we can incur no danger of disobliging borrowers. For this kind of commodity will not bear exportation, and MBS’s being of no legal tender or consistent value, to admit a long continuance in single family homes, although perhaps I could name a country, which would be glad to buy up the land of our whole nation without them.

After all, I am not so violently bent upon my own opinion, as to reject any offer, proposed by wise men, which shall be found equally innocent, cheap, easy, and effectual. But before something of that kind shall be advanced in contradiction to my scheme and offering a better, I desire the author or authors will be pleased maturely to consider two points. First, As things now stand, how they will be able to find capital and equity for our billions of useless MBS’s. And Secondly, there being around ten million of creatures in humane figure throught this country, whose whole mortgage valuations against the values of their homes, would leave them in debt one trillion dollars, adding those who are now beggars by profession, to the bulk of farmers, retirees, and small business owners, with their families, who are beggars in effect; I desire those politicians who dislike my overture, and may perhaps be so bold to attempt n answer, that they will first ask the owners of these MSB’s, whether they would not at this day think it a great happiness to have been sold for cash, in the manner I prescribe, and thereby have avoided such a perpetual scene of misfortunes, as they have since gone through, by the oppression of investment bankers, the impossibility of paying the mortgage after introductory rates expire, with neither house nor clothes to cover them from the inclemencies of the weather, and the most inevitable prospect of intailing the like, or greater miseries upon their breed forever.

I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavoring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the public good of my country and the world economy, by advancing our financial markets, providing liquidity for MBS’s, relieving the rich, and giving some pleasure to foreign investors. I have no MBS’s, by which I can propose to get a single penny; the closest being some bonds in my 401(k), and my wife’s IRA.

With countless apologies to Jonathan Swift.